Fantasy Sports: Skill or Luck?

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Fantasy Sports are a combination of luck and skill. Being skillful and being lucky takes places at different times during each fantasy event.

There has been a solid growth and popularity in the Indian market of Online Fantasy Sports, especially free online cricket games. This development is due to the contribution of usage of technology becoming more and more common. 

With the growth, it has come to the notice of many markets. Allegedly, Fantasy Sports were deemed as a game of luck or chance where you gamble for money. But the latest studies on MIT suggest otherwise; yes, your performance in fantasy sports were all based on skills and not luck. Even the recent case laws now recognise fantasy sports as a game of skill compared to the illegal acts of online betting sports, which is solely based on chance and not on analytical predictions or betting tips.

What is a game of skill?

 It is a contest in which the element that decides the outcome is based on judgement, the finesse of the participant, expertise, experience and accurate analysis that is relevant to the game.

Online fantasy sports require the players to select a team based on their knowledge of e the sport and meticulous analysis of the actual players. The final outcome depends on the performance of the selected players, thereby lowering the chance of luck.

Key Conclusions of the Study

The study, however, doesn't specify any criterion to judge which fantasy sports player is more skilful. Based on the win/loss records of multiple players of multiple seasons, the online game has been deemed a contest that adds to skill. 

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Columbia University researchers have published an academic study article with the title "Is It Luck or Skill?"

The study was based on the data from free online cricket games and fantasy basketball games. The study demonstrated that luck plays a lesser role in fantasy sports than mutual funds, with data from over four years, 16 million data points.

This research undertaken by MIT and Columbia University employed a statistical framework to assess the thesis of luck and applied a novel test that conveyed whether online fantasy sports was a contest of skill of luck.

The data furnished by Dream11 for this study was a strong indicator that the game was skill dominant and that luck played a more major role in Mutual Fund Management than in Team Selection in free online cricket games. The skill predominance based on Dream11's data showed a factor of ten while that of mutual fund data showed a mere factor of 3 for skill predominance. 

The idea that luck played any role in fantasy sports was severely rejected. The number of fantasy players with predominant skills in Dream11 was nine times higher than those that played with no skill. All the top players in free online cricket games were skill predominant.

The researchers plotted the results of every fantasy sport with a spectrum of luck against skill to put their learning in perspective. In this spectrum, every aspect of the game, including coin flipping, is based on luck and cyclocross racing, which heavily depends on skill. The spectrum curved towards skill with the result of each fantasy sport, with basketball being more skill-oriented than hockey. That is because there are more than 80 games in any season of basketball, whereas, in hockey, there are very few opportunities to score, and lucky goals are big in this case.

Legislative System on Fantasy Sports as 'Skill or Luck?'

The Indian Legislative System, after never-ending debates and exchanges, have given fantasy sport the status as a game of skill.

The game of fantasy sports should not be confused with betting, as both are different. Betting in India is illegal. The growth in the fantasy sports market could potentially lead to the decline of the illegal betting industry. Online fantasy sports have been considered safe, secure and legal. 

Most of the Indian states do not include games of skill in anti-gambling laws, but in Telangana, Odisha and Assam, even games of skill cannot be involved with money, and so they are illegal in these three states.

The development of various sports leagues like cricket, kabaddi, football, etc., has escalated the chances for fantasy sport. Although the majority of Indians are cricket crazy and play free online cricket games, fans of other leagues can be involved with other fantasy sports all through the year.

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